According to the U.S. Census Bureau, college enrollment plummeted to record lows in 2020. The drastic drop was largely attributed to the COVID-19 pandemic and marked the lowest enrollment rate in about 15 years. Now, two years later and in the end stages of the pandemic, this trend has yet to shift gears. In fact, from the spring of 2020 to the spring of 2022, there was a 7.4% decrease in enrollment nationwide, accounting for roughly 1.3 million students. What is causing this continuous decline and how are Florida schools handling the trend?

Orlando Family Magazine spoke with representatives from local universities of all sizes to find out how the nationwide trend is impacting their undergraduate enrollment.

Contributing Factors

In the past few years, many people either considering a college education or in the process of receiving one veered away from it because of the tremendous impact that the COVID-19 pandemic had on higher education. For some, it wasn’t worth it to go thousands of dollars in debt just to sit behind a screen learning virtually through Zoom, especially since that money once could have granted them a full, in-person college experience. For others, the long days of lockdown in 2020 allowed them to find what they’re most passionate about and figure out how to turn those passions into sustainable careers with no required degree.

In fact, according to the census bureau, more than 4.4 million new businesses started up in 2020, the highest number on record. It marked a 24.3% increase from 2019 and a 51% increase from the 2010-2019 average. The entrepreneurial age didn’t end in 2020 and instead strengthened with a new record-setting high of 5.4 million new business applications in 2021.

In Florida, the number of new business applications was steadily between 20,000 and 37,000 from 2005 to July 2020, roughly four months into the pandemic. This number went from 32,084 in May to 62,147 in July, marking a 193.7% increase in potential new businesses.

While the COVID-19 pandemic played a huge part in students’ lack of interest in higher education, it wasn’t the only reason for the inevitable trend. Variables like the “gig economy” and career options that only require a high school diploma have been highlighted in recent years. Independent workers like HVAC technicians and construction workers opt into trade school rather than the traditional college route because these career paths have recently become more acceptable ways to earn a living. And with more trade jobs available than ever, now is the time to enter these professions.

Beating the Odds

Higher education schools continue to suffer the consequences of the pandemic and the subsequent ever-changing economy. However, many local Florida schools came out virtually unscathed. In fact, Rollins College in Winter Park has experienced what Faye Tydlaska, the vice president for enrollment and marketing, calls “tremendous growth.”

“We have just welcomed our largest entering class in Rollins’ history, representing a 15% increase from the previous year. In addition, our transfer applications and enrollment has also grown substantially over the past few years,” she says. “This fall, we also welcomed our largest group of new transfer students, representing a 24% increase over the previous year.”

How did Rollins College, a school with a little over 2,000 students, overcome such a huge national trend? Tydlaska credits that to the college’s online and in-person availability throughout the pandemic.

“We were open for campus tours throughout much of the pandemic, and we have fully resumed our in-person recruitment travel since lastfall. We’ve also increased our digital marketing efforts and have seen great growth in the numbers of people engaging with our online campus tour.”

Florida State University (FSU) had a similar experience, and James Hunt, the director of institutional research, says that the pandemic actually increased interest in the university.

“We have seen a significant increase in interest (and applications) from out-of-state undergraduates since the onset of the pandemic,” Hunt says. “Our freshmen applications for fall 2022 were at an all-time high, so students are still very interested in the residential campus experience that FSU offers.”

The momentum that FSU has garnered over the past five years is largely attributed to the school’s current success, ultimately pushing it over the hill that so many schools cannot seem to scale.

Meanwhile, the University of Central Florida (UCF) continues its reign as the school with the most enrollment in the state. UCF’s enrollment was 68,840 students for the fall 2022 semester. This is a 2.22% decrease from the previous year and only a 1% decrease from before the pandemic in the fall of 2019.

According to Chad Binette, the assistant vice president of communications at UCF, the school’s advanced education, reputation and variety of programs have allowed it to endure the worst of the pandemic and keep enrollment rates high.

“With expert faculty and strong connections to internships and industry, UCF remains in demand for our high-quality academics. Prospective students throughout Florida and beyond achieve bachelor’s and advanced degrees that unleash their potential,” Binette says. Variety goes along with the quality of education that students receive at UCF, which Binette says offers “more than 230 bachelors’, masters’, and Ph.D. programs, a variety of research opportunities, and real-world experiences.”

Florida vs. the Nation

Overall, Florida colleges were much more fortunate than most throughout the United States. According to the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center, Florida was one of 11 states that had an increased percentage of college enrollment in the fall of 2020. The Sunshine State saw a 1.3% increase, while New Hampshire led the nation with a 15.8% increase. Meanwhile, New Mexico had the steepest drop in enrollment at -9.5%.

Since Florida’s incline at the height of the pandemic, the state has seen a steady decline in enrollment rates. Florida suffered a 1.8% decline from the fall of 2020 to the fall of 2021, going from 945,471 students to 928,395.

In the spring of 2021, 889,946 students were enrolled at Florida colleges, a number that dropped 4.2% to 842,834 students this past spring. According to the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center, Florida’s spring of 2022 numbers are right in line with the rest of the nation, which averaged a 4.1% decline from the previous year, accounting for 685,000 students.

The tide has yet to change and the majority of the nation is still fighting the uphill battle and grappling with the aftermath of COVID-19, but it’s only a matter of time before colleges across the country bounce back and realize their “new normal.”