A disturbance with the potential to become the year’s first named tropical storm developed in the Atlantic Ocean days before the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) formally issued its predictions for the 2021 hurricane season.

The National Hurricane Center (NHC), the Florida-based division of NOAA/National Weather Service dedicated to tracking and predicting the region’s tropical weather systems, began issuing its regular Tropical Weather Outlooks May 15, two weeks earlier than it typically has in the past.

And meteorological experts are already predicting that this season, just like the past few years, should be another one of increased activity.

But those same atmospheric authorities say that while a little extra precaution is never a bad thing, there’s no need to panic. Seasonal forecasts strive to be as accurate as possible, but they are still predictions—not promises.

Even so, as a response to the past six years seeing named storms forming before the conventionally accepted hurricane season has commenced, NHC announced it will cont

inue to dispatch its weather outlooks mid-May from here on out.

“To provide more consistent information on the potential for late May and early June systems, NHC will now begin the routine issuance of the Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook at 8 a.m. EDT on May 15,” it announced in a statement earlier this spring.

That’s not the only change this year ushers in. Once every decade, NOAA updates the set of statistics it employs to determine how a hurricane season compares to the 30-year average, ensuring it’s utilizing the most recent data available while also accounting for any anomalies. The 2021 season means the administration will now use data gathered from 1991-2020 as its new 30-year period of record. It’s also worth noting improved sophistication of weather technology has allowed for more accuracy, too, and the improvement of observational platforms has also contributed to increasing—and increasingly correct—predictions.

“This update allows our meteorologists to make forecasts for the hurricane season with the most relevant climate statistics taken into consideration,” says Michael Farrar, director of NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Prediction. “Our work illustrates the value of NOAA’s investments in next-generation technologies to capture the data that underpins our outlooks and other forecast products. These products are essential to providing the public and local emergency managers with advance information to prepare for storms, and achieving NOAA’s mission of protecting life and property.”

The seasonal average for major hurricanes—storms reaching Category 3, 4 or 5, meaning they sustain at least 111 mph winds and assure devastating damage—was previously 12 named storms, six hurricanes and three major hurricanes based on the previous 1981-2010 period. While the new model still holds at three major hurricanes, the updated averages have increased to 14 named storms and seven hurricanes.

Hurricane Irma damage in historic downtown Lake Eola Heights, Orlando, Florida. September 11, 2017.

“These updated averages better reflect our collective experience of the past 10 years, which included some very active hurricane seasons,” says Matt Rosencrans, seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. “NOAA scientists have evaluated the impacts of climate change on tropical cyclones and determined that it can influence storm intensity. Further research is needed to better understand and attribute the impacts of anthropogenic forcings and natural variability on tropical storm activity.”

And even with those revised updates, 2021 is still looking to be an active year, with forecasters anticipating 13 to 20 named storms, and potentially six to 10 of those becoming hurricanes, including three to five major ones. Additionally, according to its May 20 predictions, NOAA officials believe there is a 60% chance of an above-normal season, a 30% chance of a near-normal season and a 10% chance of hurricane season being below normal—though officials agree that 2021 is unlikely to see the activity 2020 did, depleting the season’s storm names and restoring to Greek letters for identification.

The Atlantic hurricane season officially runs from June 1 through Nov. 30, though it’s not a hard-and-fast window. A major storm can develop at any time if the conditions are right.

Among those contributing factors are ocean temperatures, which are steadily increasingly with climate change. This year, a comparatively weaker La Niña pattern also prevented the cooling cycle from having any significant impact, as warmer water fuels storms’ intensity.

Brian Shields, a WFTV meteorologist, says that “while the hype machine is real and there are some folks out there who want to take every storm that develops and make it seem like it’s coming right for your house,” that doesn’t mean the residents of Orlando and the rest of Florida need to worry, at least not yet.

“It looks to be a really active season,” he confirms. “The catch is, there could be a million storms in the Atlantic but none of them could hit land, or there could be just a couple and just one of them does. This one looks above average, and that does generally increase your odds of having a storm nearby, but it doesn’t mean you’re guaranteed to get hit by one.”

But longtime residents know that the most dangerous hurricane is the one for which the warnings go unheeded, like when developing storms are dismissed in the midst of a relatively quieter season, or the region is simply taken by surprise.

“It just takes one storm,” Shields notes. “Back in the early ’90s when Hurricane Andrew hit, that was actually during a milder season when there were only a few named storms. But that turned out to be one of the most devastating hurricanes we’ve ever seen.”

Those who are concerned can take some steps to mitigate that fear, as Shields is heartily in favor of packing emergency hurricane kits to weather both the storm and its aftermath.

“This is Florida, so you need to take precautions,” says Shields. “There’s a million numbers, a whole bunch of information and all these spaghetti graphs being thrown at you when you’re in the storm’s path, which is why it’s so important to prepare when cooler heads are still prevailing. A hurricane is loud, it’s going to last for a long time, you’re going to be without power, you might be cut off from everything.”

Adrienne Cutway of News 6 compiled a list of crucial supplies for hurricane survivors, including the idea of purchasing premade kits to ensure nothing goes unforgotten even in the most level-headed packing conditions, especially if you’re packing for children and pets who rely on their caregivers to plan ahead for them.

“Every Floridian should have a hurricane kit stashed somewhere in their home, even if a storm isn’t forecast to hit—we all know the cone can shift without notice no matter how accurate predictive technology is,” she says. “While making a survival kit isn’t difficult, you could forget an item or two that could be essential in the aftermath of a hurricane. By choosing a pre-made kit, you know you’ll have all the items you need, sometimes even in surplus.”

A hurricane go-bag should include everything from important documents like birth certificates and insurance documents, as well as items like flashlights, extra batteries, medications, first aid supplies, tarps, fire-starting items, candles, insect repellent, a radio that doesn’t rely on electricity, and enough nonperishable food and fresh water for each person or pet for at least three days.

Packing a hurricane kit before an impending storm, experts agree, means you’re more likely to remember all the important documents, precious items and survival staples you’ll need to get through the worst of the storm and the immediate aftermath—because nothing amplifies anxiety like rushing to get you and your loved ones to safety in a race against Mother Nature’s fury.

“While the reality of hurricanes is that they are dangerous and they are devastating, it does help to know that every single hurricane that develops does not end up in your backyard,” Shields says. “I’m a weather forecaster so I completely understand that level of anxiety, but it does help to be prepared, be educated and to watch the storm closely—but the fact is, most storms won’t end up near you.”

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