Hurricane season is here and meteorologists are expecting a busy one. 

Here in the Sunshine State, hurricane season has begun and forecasters are predicting that we’re going to see an above average number of storms—from tropical cyclones to possibly a few hurricanes—form in the Atlantic basin, which includes the Atlantic Ocean, the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea.

One of the nation’s leading forecasters, the Colorado State University Tropical Meteorology Project says it expects “above-normal activity.” And researchers at North Carolina State University are in agreement. They’re predicting 18 to 22 named storms will form in the Atlantic and, of those, eight to 11 may rise to the level of a hurricane.

A recent storm outlook issued by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration puts the probability for an above-normal season at 60%, with a 30% chance of a near-normal season and a 10% chance of below-normal.

Last year’s hurricane season was considered above normal with 18 named storms forming. Of those 18 storms, six reached sustained wind speeds high enough to be considered hurricanes.“Overall, the seasonal forecast from most of the credible forecasters out there is for an above normal season in terms of the overall number of storms,” says meteorologist and director of the Florida Public Radio Emergency Network, Jeff Huffman. “However, it’s important to note that the seasonal forecasts do not dive into whether or not a storm could hit Florida or not. And it certainly doesn’t, of course, give any clues as to when that may occur.”

Although hurricane season runs from June 1st to November 30th, activity spikes from mid-August through mid-October. The only major hurricane to directly affect Florida last year happened during this peak time. That storm was Dorian, which became a Category 5 but only skirted the state’s coast, without the eye of the storm ever making landfall.

Factors that forecasters take into account when making predictions include sea surface temperatures and wind patterns. Chief meteorologist for Spectrum News 13, Bryan Karrick says this year’s sea surface temperatures are some of the warmest seen in sometime.

“So, you have that warm, moist air of the Atlantic,” he says. “It’s rising, it’s cooling, condensing, developing into the high octane fuel for these storms to feed.”

Another weather event meteorologists are on the lookout for is the possibility of a La Niña, a naturally occurring climate phenomenon associated with a more active Atlantic hurricane season. A La Niña develops when Pacific waters cool just enough to shift the wind pattern over the Atlantic. The opposing force of a La Niña is an El Niño, which leads to an opposite weather pattern and a less active Atlantic storm season.

“Think of it as a blow dryer on a storm,” chief meteorologist for WESH 2, Tony Mainolfi says. “If you have La Niña conditions, that blow dryer is either off or it’s on very low. In an El Niño pattern that blow dryer is blowing full gun and the storm is trying to come against this big wind machine upstairs and it just can’t do it.”

El Niño and La Niña are phases of what’s called the El Niño-Southern Oscillation cycle. At the moment, the cycle is considered neutral in that we are not experiencing either an El Niño or La Niña.

Complicating the possibility of a hurricane hitting Florida this season is the continuing coronavirus pandemic. The Florida Division of Emergency Management has already added face masks, disinfectant wipes and hand sanitizer to its disaster supply kit checklist and emergency managers across the state are in the process of redeveloping shelter plans to accommodate for social distancing.

Huffman says people may have a tougher time stocking up on supplies this year because of the current shortages caused by the coronavirus pandemic.

“Many of us have seen the empty store shelves,” he says. “That’s not going to go away. So the more diligent you are in trying to stock up on supplies now, the easier it’s going to be when a storm is threatening.”

Huffman would also like people to remember that although Central Florida is insulated from the coasts, it doesn’t mean the region will not see major impacts.

“We only have to look back two years ago to see that major hurricane-force winds can occur in Orlando because they occurred in Marianna, Florida, from Hurricane Michael,” he says. “And that was 60 miles from the coast. So it’s important to remember that we’re not exempt from wind and flooding if you live in the inland areas”

Mainolfi agrees Floridians need to heed storm warnings and take necessary precautions.

The bottom line is we never really truly know how many storms we’re going to have,” he says. “But if you prepare for that one storm coming your way, then you’re prepared for any number of storms coming your way.”

Karrick further echoes this sentiment. Although he also cannot definitively say how many storms will affect Florida this hurricane season, he can predict what will happen after the storm.

“We’re such a resilient bunch down here in Central Florida,” he says. “I know that’s a cliché, but we know how to get through a hurricane and we all gather together after the hurricane, and that’s what I see for Central Florida.”
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The Florida Division of Emergency Management encourages Floridans to stock up before a storm hits. Below is a condensed list of what the agency suggests for your disaster supply kit:

– Flashlights
– A weather radio
– At least a two-weeks supply of any medications you’re taking
– Enough nonperishable food for at least seven days
– Water (about one gallon per person)
– First aid items such as bandages, gauze pads, aspirin

This article originally appeared in Orlando Family Magazine’s June 2020 issue.